Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa870b5ce93acf73f78ca408562dd698474e2f75955faf25f0a12e6d3ace07ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 906.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 3c | 613.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 78c | 359.86$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 350.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 349.79$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 303.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 282.2$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 211.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 156.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 72c | 99.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…a276backed No | 75c | 99.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 67c | 98.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 97.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 97.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 90.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 82.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 80.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 74.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 74.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 77c | 60.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 51.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 23c | 46.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 78c | 34.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 80c | 27.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 79c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked No | 80c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…4a7cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.