Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956bffd4f2307cb9a08cd57002af5c898519701957b5da74bfdcf867c969dff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed Yes | 73c | 1,195$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 890.03$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 747.03$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.78 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 652.51$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 72c | 622.85$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 73c | 538.92$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 501.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 457.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.06 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 77c | 448.59$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.11 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 76c | 408.51$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 40c | 374.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 350.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 332.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 35c | 307.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 301.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 296.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 74c | 253$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 31c | 225.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.87 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 30c | 222.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 211.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 207.36$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 207.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 25c | 199.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 55c | 181.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 181.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 175.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 166.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 165.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 163.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 62c | 163.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 155.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 33c | 151.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…9467backed No | 30c | 149.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 59c | 145.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 141.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 76c | 138.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 18c | 122.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 106.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 103.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 31c | 97.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101a…411ebacked Yes | 77c | 93.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 46c | 90.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 85.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 85.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 21c | 77.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eab…63d7backed Yes | 27c | 73.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 69.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 69.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 21c | 67.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 67.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 63.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 63.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 61.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 74c | 60.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 24c | 55.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 29c | 53.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 51.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 51.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 50.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 46.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 46.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…691abacked No | 64c | 46.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 29c | 44.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 43.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 43.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Yes | 28c | 43.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 62c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 37.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 37.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 36c | 34.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 32c | 34.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed Yes | 30c | 34.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 33.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 56c | 32.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c2…68eebacked Yes | 35c | 30.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 51c | 29.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 64c | 28.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 41c | 28.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 70c | 24.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 80c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 79c | 23.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 69c | 23.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 69c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.