Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd32017f46c8136b6b9ba567d3d696cfd8ee8b89885e7b822bdd62f9e80be27de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 917.46$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 22c | 667.47$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.9 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 64c | 641.77$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 490.37$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 33c | 486.73$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.68 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed Yes | 55c | 421.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 323.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 310$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 301.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 259.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 54c | 248.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 224.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 217.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 40c | 200.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 43c | 190.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 188.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 39c | 166$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 165.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 58c | 162.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 33c | 150.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 142.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 141.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 136.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 127$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 123.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 32c | 116.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 40c | 113.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 40c | 112.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 110.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 105.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 92.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 90.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 89.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 66c | 88.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 86.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 86.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 18c | 86.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 85.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 75.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 70c | 71.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 33c | 71.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 16c | 67.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 37c | 66.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 66.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 65.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 63.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 38c | 62.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 24c | 59.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 59.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 53.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 51.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 26c | 50.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 42c | 47.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 34c | 45.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 44.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 40.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 38.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 37.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 67c | 34.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 58c | 32.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 31c | 32.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 31.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 63c | 25.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 61c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.