NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8742b8a55502111391494e347d64105ec24b9dfbe670382567d4b9620486359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Penguins | 30c | 4,608$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,225.85 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Devils | 70c | 3,288$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.26 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Devils | 70c | 1,340$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.99 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Penguins | 31c | 820.67$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.55 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Devils | 68c | 635.64$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…b11ebacked Penguins | 31c | 247.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Devils | 69c | 211.93$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Penguins | 29c | 176.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Devils | 70c | 169.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Devils | 71c | 166.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Devils | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Devils | 68c | 143.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penguins | 32c | 136.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Devils | 59c | 134.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Penguins | 31c | 119.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Penguins | 43c | 115.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Devils | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Devils | 69c | 96.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Devils | 69c | 74.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Devils | 57c | 71.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Devils | 69c | 71.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Penguins | 31c | 62.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Penguins | 31c | 48.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Penguins | 27c | 44.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Devils | 71c | 24.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. DevilsPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Penguins won
- Spread: Penguins (-2.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.