Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8966de1053cb0321433367dfcc5816477fcf5ee52283c9563f7726caa97adb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 27c | 19,025$5,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,084.53 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 7,160$5,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.24 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 4,997$3,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 4,243$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.41 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 29c | 3,500$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 75c | 2,005$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 71c | 1,999$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.78 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…ef4bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,403$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…d9c7backed No | 72c | 1,375$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 1,186$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.36 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 71c | 684.24$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 13c | 663$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 74c | 583.33$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…9121backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d9…f53abacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 10c | 299$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 5c | 294.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 294.28$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 25c | 265.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked No | 78c | 217.95$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 206.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…22c9backed Yes | 29c | 165.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 29c | 104.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 79.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 26c | 55.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 74c | 49.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked No | 75c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 71c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…1008backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-17?No won
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.