South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89c29caa6b95037c881d14aa207b9e1bb7bf0f7c7407efb3850a2246f62eeb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 42c | 1,655$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.75 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,570$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 1,322$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.28 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 73c | 1,199$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.8 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 1,162$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.21 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 50c | 776.09$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.67 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 64c | 750$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 300.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.39 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 10c | 165.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 120.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 56c | 70.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 58.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…72a6backed Over | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 62c | 35.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 70c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…fbebbacked Over | 78c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 62c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 71c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.