Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Team Lynx (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f597fd6e6048d13bf8e96eab28f39956fd814060894e3b3e662fda59d44466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Most Wantedof Most Wanted, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Team Lynx | 44c | 2,967$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Team Lynx | 22c | 2,235$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.54 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…f1abbacked Team Lynx | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Lynx | 34c | 1,500$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.69 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Most Wanted | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.73 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Most Wanted | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed Most Wanted | 79c | 881.49$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Most Wanted | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…7fdcbacked Most Wanted | 80c | 388.84$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Most Wanted | 69c | 388.03$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Most Wanted | 55c | 335.89$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Lynx | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Most Wanted | 67c | 299$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Most Wanted | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Team Lynx | 27c | 184.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Most Wanted | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Lynx | 49c | 177$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Most Wanted | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Most Wanted | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Team Lynx | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Team Lynx | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Team Lynx | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Most Wanted | 59c | 85.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Team Lynx | 15c | 67.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Most Wanted | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Most Wanted | 60c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eed8backed Most Wanted | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…a9a0backed Most Wanted | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Team Lynx (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerMost Wanted won
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerMost Wanted won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.