TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Boston Red Soxof Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles20c1,933$391 inLost-$390.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox65c659.47$425 inWon+$234.052,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox65c461.53$300 inWon+$161.542,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles33c402.16$134 inLost-$133.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox64c277$177 inWon+$99.723,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles41c177.21$73 inLost-$72.673,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles37c134.8$50 inLost-$50.178,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles59c127$75 inLost-$74.9391252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox41c122$50 inWon+$71.988,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles34c88.2$30 inLost-$29.915,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles31c85.24$26 inLost-$26.426,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox62c80.45$50 inWon+$30.571,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Boston Red Sox62c80.45$50 inWon+$30.571,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Baltimore Orioles22c70$15 inLost-$15.41,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Baltimore Orioles29c54.8$16 inLost-$15.97529.3%22 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Boston Red Sox76c52.63$40 inWon+$12.6313672.1%98 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles59c47$28 inLost-$27.7399744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox61c24.54$15 inWon+$9.656,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.