MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92b46dc94f0be7bc424263b9b8ec77b7bdf935176203f0b7e48b29fec81e9f94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Over | 59c | 48,952$29,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,011.94 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 39,973$16,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,583.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 17,651$8,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,002.24 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 15,236$7,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770.36 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 6,139$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 2,717$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 71c | 1,987$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.98 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 51c | 1,799$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.38 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 49c | 1,500$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 1,407$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 1,253$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,179$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 1,112$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 39c | 810$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 502.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 49c | 467.65$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 49c | 439.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.39 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 367.74$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 329.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…98a0backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Under | 49c | 203.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Under | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Over | 51c | 195$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 52c | 184.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 51c | 154.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 150.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 39c | 147.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 140.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 127.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 44c | 121.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Over | 51c | 97.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 37c | 91.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 61c | 88.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 41c | 85.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 56c | 80.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 51c | 68.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…4aabbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 52c | 52.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…242bbacked Over | 51c | 51.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…f6b5backed Over | 56c | 44.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 42c | 34.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 51c | 32.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 63c | 30.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…a9a4backed Over | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 51c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 50c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…5eb0backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.