MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb99c4fd12a59776183253eb8c322d122fbe910b7d1ab735be58b9c08a0ee6669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfaa…2814backed No | 55c | 4,630$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 44c | 1,908$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.96 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 49c | 851.98$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.51 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 812.15$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 79c | 660.34$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 52c | 588.89$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…6586backed No | 51c | 496$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +88%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 19c | 422.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 47c | 336.3$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 219.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 199$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 18c | 159$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 47c | 108.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 52c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 45c | 50.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 24c | 46.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34b…9d48backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 53c | 36.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 45c | 26.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.