MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119003760921dc32318d29ff7029be290ef2df5f621d51f98935b16caeffa7ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 962.67$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.96 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 945.69$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 817.97$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 679.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 599$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.64 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 556.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 272.73$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 242.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 227$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.98 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 223.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 186$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 109.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 92.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 77.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 75.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 71.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 61.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…dda9backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 56.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 49.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 46.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 37.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 33.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 31.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 26.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.