Fifa International · resolved market
Will Gibraltar win on 2025-11-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa93688d087363a1ab49e5678bc5fd41e024f2be7f915b3962b5a8e45a20de8bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Yes | 21c | 8,761$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.09 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 7c | 3,485$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.1 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 5c | 2,277$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 7c | 1,392$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 9c | 1,105$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 250 | 19.6%49 W · 201 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 6c | 999.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…dabfbacked Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 632.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.64 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 22c | 456.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 435.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 401.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…f486backed Yes | 6c | 273.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Yes | 6c | 221.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes | 6c | 221.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…dd33backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 24c | 165.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 157.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 22c | 126.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 79c | 104.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 31c | 99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gibraltar win on 2025-11-14?this page
- Will Gibraltar vs. Montenegro end in a draw?No won
- Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.