NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa949459187966eec9e77216f644d118696754a5a11059d686b9247da3ce3141a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Lightning, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617b…a499backed Lightning | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Sabres | 58c | 1,695$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.14 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sabres | 57c | 1,546$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.38 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Sabres | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Sabres | 59c | 745.76$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.76 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning | 41c | 491.73$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.61 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Sabres | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sabres | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Sabres | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lightning | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lightning | 42c | 183.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Lightning | 41c | 170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Lightning | 26c | 127.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Lightning | 42c | 108.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Lightning | 43c | 105.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Lightning | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 58c | 84.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sabres | 74c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 42c | 63.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Lightning | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sabres | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…b9c3backed Lightning | 44c | 46.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lightning | 42c | 43.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Lightning | 42c | 40.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lightning | 42c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. LightningLightning won
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.