NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf388cf415d8fefbc0a8a1d4c74b18eaf35b71a2882f1750188150f114f8010bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 2,901$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.45 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 1,384$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.05 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.13 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 51c | 962$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.62 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 762.34$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.17 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 52c | 656.17$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.21 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 568.63$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 506.4$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.54 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 53c | 326$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 12c | 192.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Under | 53c | 122.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 32c | 34.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 49c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. LightningLightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.