NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e73820711124f100067e9c55a6198df51d629eada45aa48ba32ab6b68e12293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Sabres, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,538,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,564,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,538,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Sabres | 39c | 415,089$162,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162,110.26 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning | 63c | 338,836$213,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125,234.2 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Sabres | 37c | 304,274$112,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,581.35 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Lightning | 64c | 220,000$141,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,999.99 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Sabres | 38c | 185,000$70,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,300 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Lightning | 59c | 150,846$89,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,556.7 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Sabres | 35c | 108,773$38,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,470.54 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Lightning | 63c | 89,722$56,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,197.14 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Sabres | 36c | 88,699$31,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,501.62 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 64c | 69,694$44,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,300.35 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning | 64c | 65,507$42,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,462.91 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Lightning | 63c | 50,000$31,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,500 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Lightning | 63c | 45,000$28,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,650 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Lightning | 53c | 40,990$21,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,075.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Lightning | 64c | 30,912$19,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,128.16 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Sabres | 36c | 28,256$10,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,262.47 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Lightning | 64c | 27,900$17,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,036 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 38c | 27,718$10,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,425.29 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 62c | 19,931$12,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,560.86 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Sabres | 34c | 14,345$4,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,922.31 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning | 63c | 13,800$8,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,105.7 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Lightning | 64c | 13,400$8,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847.5 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…4214backed Lightning | 55c | 11,569$6,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,213.84 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 64c | 10,403$6,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.76 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ea…bb01backed Sabres | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Sabres | 35c | 8,306$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.18 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Lightning | 64c | 7,951$5,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.6 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lightning | 63c | 7,526$4,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.69 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Lightning | 65c | 6,666$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.43 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Sabres | 33c | 6,500$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.99 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Lightning | 65c | 6,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 63c | 5,500$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Lightning | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Lightning | 62c | 4,772$2,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.21 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Sabres | 40c | 4,608$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.39 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Lightning | 63c | 4,500$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sabres | 35c | 4,492$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Sabres | 37c | 4,318$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.67 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sabres | 42c | 4,117$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.33 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning | 62c | 4,112$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.63 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Lightning | 65c | 3,889$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.15 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Lightning | 64c | 3,872$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.21 | 459 | 55.1%253 W · 206 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Sabres | 38c | 3,750$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 67c | 3,592$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.56 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec6…d2b5backed Sabres | 38c | 3,466$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning | 66c | 3,421$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.51 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Lightning | 63c | 3,175$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Sabres | 66c | 3,158$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.05 | 521 | 72.6%378 W · 143 L | +36.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sabres | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Lightning | 63c | 2,947$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.38 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Sabres | 36c | 2,778$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Sabres | 25c | 2,772$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.01 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sabres | 34c | 2,689$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.28 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lightning | 68c | 2,540$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.85 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Sabres | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.99 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Lightning | 41c | 2,468$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.12 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.95 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning | 63c | 2,367$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.9 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Sabres | 35c | 2,134$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.9 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Sabres | 38c | 2,105$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…4d2cbacked Sabres | 4c | 2,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Sabres | 38c | 2,050$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning | 65c | 2,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…398cbacked Lightning | 63c | 1,960$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Sabres | 36c | 1,950$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Sabres | 16c | 1,936$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.59 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Sabres | 37c | 1,900$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 248 | 45.2%112 W · 136 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Lightning | 10c | 1,777$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.71 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Sabres | 36c | 1,750$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.5 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Lightning | 63c | 1,719$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.47 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Lightning | 60c | 1,667$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.12 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Lightning | 37c | 1,566$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.41 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2a70backed Lightning | 66c | 1,547$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f92…35a7backed Sabres | 34c | 1,546$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.98 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943e…9f08backed Lightning | 66c | 1,450$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Lightning | 66c | 1,404$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.2 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Lightning | 63c | 1,399$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.68 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked Sabres | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Sabres | 34c | 1,322$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.92 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…203abacked Sabres | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Sabres | 33c | 1,200$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Lightning | 64c | 1,157$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.55 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Sabres | 5c | 1,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Sabres | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Sabres | 1c | 1,052$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Lightning | 52c | 1,038$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.54 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Sabres | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…f8e1backed Lightning | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Lightning | 72c | 997.09$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.78 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed Lightning | 65c | 977.94$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.28 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Lightning | 63c | 957.05$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.16 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…5f47backed Lightning | 63c | 952.38$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Lightning | 63c | 932.45$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…c4a0backed Lightning | 64c | 920.45$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.36 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Lightning | 57c | 882.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.95 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sabres | 35c | 868$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.81 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 64c | 863.35$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.17 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Lightningthis page
- Sabres vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.