College Football · resolved market
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa94eaa589c9f30f5e76c3ad04b38b46b0393606bfe39ad971888ead7dc5adf7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacksonville Stateof Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b39…eeaabacked Western Kentucky | 2c | 5,500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 5,069$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Western Kentucky | 3c | 3,326$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Western Kentucky | 15c | 2,589$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Jacksonville State | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Jacksonville State | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Western Kentucky | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Western Kentucky | 1c | 930.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 672.89$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Western Kentucky | 34c | 647.45$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.54 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Western Kentucky | 6c | 637.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…ba26backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 536.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 533.63$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…14efbacked Western Kentucky | 19c | 530.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Jacksonville State | 66c | 505.42$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Western Kentucky | 5c | 500.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…fdbabacked Jacksonville State | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7551…a8e9backed Western Kentucky | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Jacksonville State | 63c | 499.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Jacksonville State | 63c | 478.61$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Jacksonville State | 63c | 450.66$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.74 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Western Kentucky | 10c | 431.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Western Kentucky | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Western Kentucky | 13c | 307.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…3ab2backed Western Kentucky | 40c | 285.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Western Kentucky | 5c | 253.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Western Kentucky | 12c | 231.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Western Kentucky | 11c | 218.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Jacksonville State | 62c | 200.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 174.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2088…9c55backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 161.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…6c2abacked Western Kentucky | 9c | 156.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Western Kentucky | 38c | 156.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 154.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…fabcbacked Western Kentucky | 36c | 127.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Jacksonville State | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…9600backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 122.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…cb24backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 121.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Jacksonville State | 62c | 113.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…d484backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbd…29bfbacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Western Kentucky | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0699…047dbacked Western Kentucky | 37c | 96.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Jacksonville State | 54c | 94.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 82.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…7359backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Jacksonville State | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…61abbacked Western Kentucky | 38c | 78.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…59c0backed Jacksonville State | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…695fbacked Western Kentucky | 38c | 67.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Jacksonville State | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…e7b2backed Jacksonville State | 66c | 57.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…e35ebacked Western Kentucky | 37c | 57.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…35b3backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Western Kentucky | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Jacksonville State | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…59e2backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1f…ab5bbacked Jacksonville State | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…fbc6backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 41.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…8659backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 40.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…533fbacked Western Kentucky | 37c | 40.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…4f6dbacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…bb38backed Jacksonville State | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Jacksonville State | 62c | 35.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Jacksonville State | 65c | 32.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…879ebacked Jacksonville State | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…cf5cbacked Jacksonville State | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bf…14cfbacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3690backed Jacksonville State | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…6fedbacked Western Kentucky | 36c | 28.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1563…5703backed Western Kentucky | 37c | 27.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…7b2abacked Jacksonville State | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Jacksonville State | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…817ebacked Jacksonville State | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked Jacksonville State | 67c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…9367backed Jacksonville State | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…064cbacked Jacksonville State | 67c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.