Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d202da2499e3a055b23fb0aee0ea293a40e247061e168fe411fb1bc1e1b057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Team Cobra
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 4,370$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.1 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Cobra | 44c | 3,647$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.53 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Cobra | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 2,223$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.9 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Cobra | 49c | 912.8$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.51 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 737.41$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.69 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Team Cobra | 48c | 725.53$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 514.74$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Cobra | 40c | 317.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…a9cbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 264.91$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Cobra | 44c | 188.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Team Cobra | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Cobra | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Team Cobra | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Team Cobra | 46c | 65.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Team Cobra | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.