Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6c760a576cfb75256f5d44c5604cb4e1ca77bc6d3322a4cf134cd7f8925b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Team Cobra
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Cobra | 12c | 3,110$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.04 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Cobra | 38c | 2,817$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.66 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Cobra | 19c | 1,605$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.02 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 1,162$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.51 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 1,115$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.92 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Cobra | 38c | 1,090$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.2 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Team Cobra | 13c | 1,049$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9398…c81abacked Team Cobra | 3c | 999.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Cobra | 8c | 645$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 609.17$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…bc49backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 586.77$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…6b34backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Team Cobra | 12c | 480.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Cobra | 17c | 455.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…63bcbacked Team Cobra | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Cobra | 38c | 394.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 333.87$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Team Cobra | 17c | 278.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 273.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 267.49$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Team Cobra | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed Team Cobra | 44c | 203.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Team Cobra | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 174.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f3…e5d3backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 134.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Team Cobra | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 118.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 100.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 91.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 85.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 85.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Team Cobra | 40c | 84.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 64.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Cobra | 38c | 61.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Team Cobra | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.