NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d5e1e71405a3a30c1fc2c32eb965223994315f72a3f35a3772674ce7d60a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 11,742$6,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,340.75 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…66b2backed Under | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 53c | 1,761$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.19 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 965.59$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Under | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.57 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 289.3$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 52c | 251.64$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 55c | 245.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…addfbacked Under | 51c | 241.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Over | 49c | 225.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Under | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Under | 51c | 189.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 58c | 171.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Under | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 158.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Under | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 110.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 47c | 82.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 44.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef3…6ee3backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 49c | 28.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…aadabacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5this page
- Pelicans vs. BullsPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.