NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x270bcc79443b0280505945a3e8fc34c7f1d3af1375ac5153ee8aa88daf5e9a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Bulls, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Bulls | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Pelicans | 49c | 44,755$22,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,657.34 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Pelicans | 50c | 42,611$21,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,305.73 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 50c | 39,387$19,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,771.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Bulls | 50c | 29,938$14,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,969.04 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…8a39backed Pelicans | 50c | 10,016$5,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,008 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…b2e9backed Pelicans | 52c | 9,613$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,614.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 47c | 9,289$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pelicans | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 52c | 6,670$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.3 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans | 53c | 5,584$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.61 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Pelicans | 50c | 3,852$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.15 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fc…7ac6backed Bulls | 49c | 2,036$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Bulls | 52c | 1,300$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.99 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 72c | 1,281$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Bulls | 18c | 1,046$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 50c | 706.41$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.21 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls | 23c | 652.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Pelicans | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Bulls | 49c | 600$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Bulls | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Pelicans | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Pelicans | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Pelicans | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pelicans | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 49c | 244.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pelicans | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Pelicans | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Pelicans | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Pelicans | 47c | 145.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Bulls | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…830cbacked Bulls | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…b926backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pelicans | 77c | 97.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Pelicans | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Pelicans | 50c | 79.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 48c | 74.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Pelicans | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Pelicans | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bulls | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bulls | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Bulls | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Pelicans | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pelicans | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Pelicans | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Bulls | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Bulls | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Bulls | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Pelicans | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…ba2ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. BullsPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.