NBA · resolved market
Will Mavericks fire GM Nico Harrison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa01d293f90d81088f3764b971476b6576c5d32f4eb19e2759ee99ddc3b03299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 3c | 333.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…6bd3backed Yes | 11c | 184.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…a0e4backed No | 78c | 164$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…55e5backed Yes | 44c | 114.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 17c | 70.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 27c | 53.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 50.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 75c | 42.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed No | 45c | 33.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 73c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.