Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Lisa Cook?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa0c959dc97e8cebde8b3ba6bf094ba41f881d993127246935d71e3bb28ec671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,562$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,095$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,040$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,246$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 882.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 14c | 398.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 365$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…4468backed Yes | 10c | 360$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 14c | 144.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 16c | 108.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Lisa Cook?this page
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Lisa Cook?No won
- Will Trump announce David Malpass to replace Lisa Cook?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Lisa Cook?No won
- Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.