Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0891c6899340028d1bf5ad2e78d5bf05dc72b46a4463488f006d4cf6a28ea545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $321,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03b3…e52cbacked No | 1c | 4,288$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,927$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 1c | 2,761$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 1c | 2,287$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,624$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 1c | 1,468$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 4c | 1,324$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed No | 7c | 784.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 80c | 703.13$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 63c | 477$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked No | 3c | 375$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 63c | 288.71$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked Yes | 63c | 265$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 50c | 262.13$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 12c | 131$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 126.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 58c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 62c | 87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 42c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked No | 62c | 60.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 66c | 50.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…1ac8backed No | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?this page
- Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Lisa Cook?No won
- Will Trump announce David Malpass to replace Lisa Cook?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Lisa Cook?No won
- Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Lisa Cook?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.