College Football · resolved market
Air Force vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2a5170c1061136d521bdbc56b5f3c32ae0bb924cc3a6f26c306ccc82fba4a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Air Forceof Air Force, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Air Force | 75c | 6,858$5,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…94bcbacked San Diego State | 27c | 4,013$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.63 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed San Diego State | 0c | 3,731$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed San Diego State | 18c | 2,170$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked San Diego State | 28c | 1,523$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…e52fbacked Air Force | 72c | 1,523$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.41 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San Diego State | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Air Force | 65c | 774.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.67 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…8d72backed Air Force | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…978abacked San Diego State | 42c | 714.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed San Diego State | 33c | 708.25$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.33 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…4334backed San Diego State | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Air Force | 64c | 486.08$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.21 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…28e5backed San Diego State | 36c | 472.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Air Force | 72c | 440$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked Air Force | 79c | 409.25$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…89d8backed Air Force | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…1cfabacked Air Force | 75c | 208.92$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed San Diego State | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed San Diego State | 31c | 151.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Air Force | 68c | 148.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Air Force | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed San Diego State | 32c | 104.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Air Force | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Air Force | 67c | 89.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8801…23a0backed San Diego State | 35c | 88.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…1fcbbacked Air Force | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked San Diego State | 30c | 63.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed San Diego State | 39c | 50.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Air Force | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Air Force | 69c | 44.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Air Force | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed San Diego State | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…c82bbacked Air Force | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…9303backed Air Force | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Air Force | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Air Force | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.