Premier League · resolved market
Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3dab09afac0485d10c3faeff178a1006ada13b482389ca99966472ad4e3d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 2,178$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.53 | 1,218 | 32.2%392 W · 826 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 70c | 1,160$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.06 | 90 | 32.2%29 W · 61 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 30c | 935.37$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.56 | 1,821 | 34.6%630 W · 1,191 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 794.33$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.96 | 1,028 | 36.2%372 W · 656 L | -19.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 75c | 566.36$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 601 | 47.8%287 W · 314 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 496.71$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 4,892 | 41.5%2,028 W · 2,864 L | +25.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 30c | 276.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 1,328 | 42.4%563 W · 765 L | -29.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 71c | 58.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…5802backed Over | 70c | 41.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 73c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,029 | 51.7%532 W · 497 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…6a3abacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 685 | 39.9%273 W · 412 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-2.5)Wrexham AFC won
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-1.5)Birmingham City FC won
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-2.5)Birmingham City FC won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: Wrexham AFC O/U 1.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.