Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa49e69339fdc8aa890b64651f2ddf93740a248206965a01ba5e5622002b3ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 154.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 153.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 143.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 137.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 121.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 113.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 23c | 110.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 36c | 89.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 55c | 87.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 86.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 67c | 84.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 81.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 39c | 79.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 77.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 70.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 42c | 60.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 59.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 72c | 59.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 56.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 35c | 54.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 53.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 48c | 53.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 37c | 52.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…267dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 41.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 60c | 40.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 72c | 39.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 37c | 35.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 34.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 67c | 32.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 32.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 30.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 30.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 25.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…c587backed Yes | 47c | 21.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 21.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 63c | 20.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 67c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.