Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6196770fa51c4f26b4c8a5693b15346cb43bfd7470ffb558aeb50608c3078e1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 446$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 379.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 277.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 268.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1269…8162backed Yes | 28c | 182.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 8c | 158.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 150.22$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 144.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 18c | 132.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 91.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 66c | 90.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 83.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 23c | 79.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 74.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 66c | 69.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 65c | 69.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 62.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 59.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 43c | 57.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 52.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 78c | 49.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 27c | 41.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 50c | 41.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 37.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 45c | 32.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 32.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 30.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 73c | 30.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 30.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 30.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.