Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4e48f580ace9f3a4dbd93563ef00b974cdff6cad3471deab55d8dc9ebfae16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 723.01$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 370.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 45c | 303.33$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 196.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 174.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 172.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 162.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 153.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 148.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 33c | 134.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 133.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 132.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…da0abacked No | 78c | 127.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 108.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 23c | 107.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 106.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 100.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 91.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 46c | 89.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 82.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 67c | 74.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 64c | 73.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 71.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 70.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 67.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 66.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 61.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 60.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 67c | 57.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 34c | 54.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 23c | 53.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 23c | 51.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 50.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 47.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 35c | 45.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 23c | 43.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 34c | 43.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 28c | 38.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 34.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 34.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 34.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed No | 61c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 68c | 28.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 61c | 25.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 23.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 64c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 67c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 77c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.