Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac9cdf0cd272cd14c02389995a13bad3f54f2693ab3fa4631f33424c4416395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 706.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 34c | 288.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.3 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 223.53$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 217.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 216.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 214.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 77c | 203.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 183.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 169.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 162.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 79c | 161.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 156.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 32c | 144.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 136.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 36c | 125.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 122.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 117.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 117$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 57c | 108.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 31c | 103$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 98.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 97.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 97.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 85.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 80.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 38c | 78.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 77.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 75.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 71.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 69.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 35c | 68.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…c1a6backed Yes | 67c | 65.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 63.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 36c | 60.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 57.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes | 34c | 54.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 49.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 49.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 37c | 48.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed Yes | 73c | 48.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 47.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 46.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 46.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 44.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 32c | 42.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 37.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 60c | 33.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 29.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 48c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 25.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…d2d6backed Yes | 62c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 57c | 22.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 67c | 21.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 78c | 20.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 77c | 20.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 17.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…243bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.