World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5aa8844cdcb27f9224d55472a4017788d54e36080250c7b6c63d537fb3d6de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 8c | 9,260$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.46 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3b…f205backed No | 6c | 2,622$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 2c | 1,947$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 1c | 1,503$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 4c | 1,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 9c | 940.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 823.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 2c | 771.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 75c | 747.53$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…1e55backed No | 2c | 706.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…1d38backed Yes | 75c | 543.18$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 467.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 323.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 249.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 7c | 192.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb458…d89ebacked Yes | 77c | 139.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 133.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 118.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 15c | 98.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 76c | 97.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 28c | 75.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked No | 42c | 58.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 76c | 46.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.