Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Ueberlingen Men: Tim Handel vs Arthur Nagel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6c2a86071f219ca218cc03e80b65f1b1b5a39c95ba5b43936a1aca4c373d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arthur Nagelof Tim Handel, Arthur Nagel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Arthur Nagel | 73c | 5,383$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.98 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tim Handel | 26c | 4,123$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.97 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…97dabacked Tim Handel | 30c | 539$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Arthur Nagel | 74c | 490.52$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Tim Handel | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 21.5%80 W · 292 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Tim Handel | 21c | 425$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tim Handel | 41c | 402.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…757abacked Arthur Nagel | 59c | 310.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…80b1backed Tim Handel | 22c | 291.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -12.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tim Handel | 28c | 282.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Arthur Nagel | 74c | 268.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 313 | 55.3%173 W · 140 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Tim Handel | 24c | 252.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 381 | 48.3%184 W · 197 L | +28.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…68b6backed Tim Handel | 22c | 230.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 14.3%16 W · 96 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arthur Nagel | 68c | 157.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tim Handel | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Tim Handel | 34c | 132.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Tim Handel | 38c | 129.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,053 | 40.9%431 W · 622 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Tim Handel | 42c | 111.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 436 | 52.1%227 W · 209 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Arthur Nagel | 79c | 109.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Tim Handel | 33c | 103.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Arthur Nagel | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…6794backed Arthur Nagel | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 378 | 53.7%203 W · 175 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Tim Handel | 28c | 97.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Tim Handel | 23c | 82.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 792 | 38.3%303 W · 489 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Arthur Nagel | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Tim Handel | 27c | 71.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Arthur Nagel | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 418 | 51.7%216 W · 202 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Arthur Nagel | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Arthur Nagel | 71c | 69.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 336 | 48.5%163 W · 173 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Arthur Nagel | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Arthur Nagel | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…7eccbacked Tim Handel | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…27d1backed Tim Handel | 43c | 62.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca0…2247backed Arthur Nagel | 66c | 60.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tim Handel | 31c | 52.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Arthur Nagel | 64c | 49.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Arthur Nagel | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Arthur Nagel | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Arthur Nagel | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Arthur Nagel | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 309 | 69.6%215 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Arthur Nagel | 65c | 29.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 468 | 55.1%258 W · 210 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arthur Nagel | 79c | 29.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Arthur Nagel | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…5e60backed Arthur Nagel | 72c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…af5bbacked Arthur Nagel | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Arthur Nagel | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…fac0backed Arthur Nagel | 70c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.