Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae599d83512c8b5ee026a22e140217b66de2a67c40e30ac5985562afc5dce0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 64c | 1,109$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.97 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Under | 31c | 577.54$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.04 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Under | 60c | 558.13$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.25 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 70c | 475.86$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.18 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Over | 41c | 350$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Under | 31c | 320$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Under | 52c | 294.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…6a11backed Under | 34c | 174.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…de1dbacked Over | 37c | 168$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…2c7fbacked Over | 37c | 167$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…89d7backed Over | 37c | 166$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…50dcbacked Over | 37c | 165$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf63…cf95backed Over | 37c | 162$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…1a80backed Under | 63c | 161$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…3cc7backed Under | 63c | 159$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…3464backed Under | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Under | 29c | 155.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…5f36backed Under | 63c | 154$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…f597backed Under | 63c | 153$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…63f4backed Over | 37c | 153$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…9c8cbacked Under | 63c | 153$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…f705backed Over | 37c | 151$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa931…4366backed Over | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…10f6backed Over | 37c | 147$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…8558backed Over | 37c | 146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…dd6bbacked Over | 37c | 146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…2678backed Over | 37c | 145$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…58d6backed Over | 37c | 145$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…9b7abacked Over | 37c | 145$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…5b2bbacked Under | 63c | 144$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…10d2backed Under | 63c | 141$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ae…7348backed Under | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…71fcbacked Under | 63c | 139$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe18…85abbacked Under | 63c | 139$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…8837backed Under | 63c | 136$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…6251backed Under | 63c | 136$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Under | 55c | 135.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 40c | 132.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01cf…3928backed Under | 63c | 132$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…16a5backed Under | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…43b6backed Over | 76c | 118.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Over | 40c | 100.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Under | 26c | 46.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Over | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 78cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 46c | 29.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Under | 65c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…3010backed Over | 64c | 21.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439e…f15dbacked Over | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3)Team Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.