TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Falcons, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,556 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons52c8,029$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,155.6973841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons67c5,581$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,712.6334146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Yandex57c5,563$3,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.413027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51a7…530ebacked Team Yandex41c5,342$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,161.261070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons56c4,370$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.5462841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex42c4,312$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.131,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex39c4,004$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.552,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Team Falcons65c3,764$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.655358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Team Falcons66c2,807$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.316750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons45c2,400$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Team Yandex33c2,252$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.8112147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex48c2,103$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.0348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Falcons1c1,716$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1621847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Team Falcons74c1,528$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.1523465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Team Yandex33c1,515$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.156155.7%34 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Yandex25c1,500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.9839936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Yandex34c1,471$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.5912459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb055…c95abacked Team Falcons46c1,215$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.581145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Falcons78c1,200$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93653652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1765backed Team Falcons2c1,030$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.999244.6%41 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed Team Yandex31c981.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.356963.8%44 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Yandex42c969.01$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.2510338.8%40 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons57c917.77$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.8536442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Falcons74c784.62$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.628046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Yandex49c700$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.359250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Yandex33c660.77$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.397935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Team Falcons50c650$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8217146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Team Yandex45c599.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9922033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked Team Falcons69c580.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3436…17c5backed Team Yandex56c579.83$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Team Yandex41c542.42$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.696460.9%39 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons75c533.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40047660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ac…86d0backed Team Falcons60c501.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Yandex56c484.35$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.813262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Team Yandex22c427.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.317549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21264149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Yandex27c389.11$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.0531545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Team Yandex40c368.26$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.069838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex33c350$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Yandex58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8335370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4080…8b41backed Team Falcons68c339.69$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Team Falcons60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Team Falcons71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked Team Yandex33c240.96$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.517149.3%35 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Yandex65c198.75$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8118075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4444…83ecbacked Team Falcons77c172.43$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc687…e856backed Team Falcons58c157.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed3…4948backed Team Falcons43c156.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Team Yandex42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8711943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Team Yandex28c140$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.85750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd35…66c2backed Team Falcons14c139.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83b2…bbdbbacked Team Falcons59c135.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.121136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Team Falcons75c133.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008160.5%49 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Falcons67c132.78$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3514668.5%100 W · 46 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Team Falcons46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020457.8%118 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Yandex47c106.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5820361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Yandex49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0426957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed Team Yandex33c101.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9719949.2%98 W · 101 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0529…da98backed Team Falcons73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Team Yandex48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5214948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Team Falcons59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5917647.2%83 W · 93 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aed…eb43backed Team Falcons59c98.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Yandex37c91.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8deb…d8e2backed Team Yandex41c88.9$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.841241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ba…faecbacked Team Falcons55c86.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.191154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Team Falcons74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.29661.5%59 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x217f…5d10backed Team Falcons50c79.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.959128.6%26 W · 65 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Team Falcons75c77.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5826958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae2…356bbacked Team Falcons48c67.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.223250%16 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd718…aa13backed Team Falcons48c65.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.442240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-40%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Team Falcons80c63.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.994967.3%33 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6da8…d660backed Team Falcons59c62.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.541833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons47c60.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Team Falcons56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.716232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Team Falcons67c59.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4055561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde06…0db1backed Team Falcons68c58.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Team Yandex44c57.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.31668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe973…1c09backed Team Yandex55c50.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+102.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Team Falcons60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed Team Falcons78c47.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8911452.6%60 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Falcons67c45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1539351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea5…6696backed Team Yandex46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf2…6a11backed Team Yandex39c43.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.091566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Team Yandex73c41.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.023943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18fe…a4a0backed Team Yandex44c40.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.916450%32 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Team Yandex25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3023640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3099…d252backed Team Falcons62c36.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.417570.7%53 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Team Falcons57c36.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.488066.3%53 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x569b…857ebacked Team Yandex56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Team Falcons61c33.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Yandex40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1873743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed Team Falcons73c27.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.321040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Team Falcons59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821155%116 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Team Falcons52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.433945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc8…21f0backed Team Falcons64c18.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.884141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee06…3054backed Team Falcons72c15.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111428.6%4 W · 10 L-5.9wins-0.42per pick71cpaid-61.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.