Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Frances Tiafoe vs Yannick Hanfmann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaee5ef7bab4ff21500c3469db36c47e031bfd57a4a734d3c2be032fc3eb3de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hanfmannof Tiafoe, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hanfmann | 44c | 3,883$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.96 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tiafoe | 49c | 2,920$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.57 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hanfmann | 35c | 2,603$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.47 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Hanfmann | 39c | 1,476$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Hanfmann | 58c | 1,100$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hanfmann | 37c | 899.51$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.84 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tiafoe | 61c | 849.59$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.82 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Tiafoe | 53c | 680.62$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.94 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Hanfmann | 39c | 625.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.39 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tiafoe | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tiafoe | 63c | 520.08$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.42 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hanfmann | 60c | 416.32$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Hanfmann | 40c | 374.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Tiafoe | 28c | 330$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Hanfmann | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Hanfmann | 31c | 188.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tiafoe | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tiafoe | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Tiafoe | 61c | 163.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Hanfmann | 22c | 158.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tiafoe | 15c | 139.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Hanfmann | 39c | 138.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Tiafoe | 60c | 123.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Hanfmann | 42c | 119.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Tiafoe | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tiafoe | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Hanfmann | 34c | 80.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Hanfmann | 39c | 80.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Tiafoe | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Tiafoe | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tiafoe | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Hanfmann | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hanfmann | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tiafoe | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Tiafoe | 67c | 23.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.