Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Kali Supova vs Manon Favier
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab00c467e9735b0dfb8f9a90cab78dd0e619b88c975c050f0fcc182dc09b0f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kali Supovaof Kali Supova, Manon Favier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kali Supova | 58c | 7,918$4,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,363.54 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Manon Favier | 48c | 2,275$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.25 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manon Favier | 47c | 1,544$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.78 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…7475backed Manon Favier | 27c | 794.81$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.6 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Manon Favier | 31c | 785$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.15 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Manon Favier | 47c | 768.77$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.53 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Manon Favier | 17c | 599.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Manon Favier | 47c | 317$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.09 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Manon Favier | 30c | 288$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Kali Supova | 73c | 219.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Manon Favier | 44c | 184.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Manon Favier | 47c | 163$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Manon Favier | 47c | 154$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Manon Favier | 48c | 132.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manon Favier | 29c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Manon Favier | 22c | 112.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…a0bdbacked Manon Favier | 47c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Manon Favier | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Manon Favier | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Manon Favier | 48c | 75.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Manon Favier | 21c | 71.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Kali Supova | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Manon Favier | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Manon Favier | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Manon Favier | 48c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Manon Favier | 40c | 36.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Kali Supova | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Manon Favier | 40c | 29.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Manon Favier | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Manon Favier | 41c | 25.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Manon Favier | 48c | 23.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Kali Supova | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…d0c7backed Kali Supova | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Kali Supova | 79c | 12.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.