Music · resolved market
Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber ft. Nicki Minaj" be the #2 song this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab3536ab2691d3cbc088f4865d37f0c05a3599dd456d30800228ea1362321356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 77c | 4,084$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.77 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 23c | 454$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed No | 23c | 225$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 23c | 129.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 23c | 121.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 12c | 103.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…86a3backed No | 25c | 90.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 21c | 78.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…fb48backed No | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.