Tennis · resolved market
ITF Luan: Xiaowei Li vs Niehua Tian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab46efa80462ea4f5af9813a0ee33c2f12c47db0102aff304e5a094e947f4679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xiaowei Liof Xiaowei Li, Niehua Tian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Niehua Tian | 33c | 22,551$7,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,518.68 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Xiaowei Li | 67c | 19,171$12,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,392.53 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Xiaowei Li | 64c | 556.3$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.22 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Xiaowei Li | 56c | 448.1$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.73 | 3,631 | 54.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L | +110.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Niehua Tian | 43c | 240.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 377 | 44.8%169 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Niehua Tian | 44c | 183.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 896 | 59.6%534 W · 362 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Xiaowei Li | 63c | 167.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Niehua Tian | 37c | 159.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 1,406 | 45.3%637 W · 769 L | +43.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Niehua Tian | 44c | 140.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Niehua Tian | 38c | 125.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Xiaowei Li | 55c | 85.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Niehua Tian | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 388 | 54.1%210 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Niehua Tian | 43c | 64.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 406 | 61.3%249 W · 157 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Niehua Tian | 21c | 58.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Niehua Tian | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 236 | 28.8%68 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Xiaowei Li | 63c | 50.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed Xiaowei Li | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Niehua Tian | 43c | 44.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 587 | 57.8%339 W · 248 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Niehua Tian | 42c | 43.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…cf8abacked Xiaowei Li | 66c | 41.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Niehua Tian | 34c | 36.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Xiaowei Li | 68c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Xiaowei Li | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Xiaowei Li | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Xiaowei Li | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 798 | 57.6%460 W · 338 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Xiaowei Li | 66c | 25.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Xiaowei Li | 58c | 24.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Xiaowei Li | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 932 | 58.5%545 W · 387 L | +22.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Xiaowei Li | 70c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Xiaowei Li | 62c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.