MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4c5ea46e71757dabd7d1e7cab44774ea46572eb9d930faf8f3b90727ad60c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 35c | 14,338$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.85 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 9,178$5,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 8,491$4,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,168.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 7,959$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 7,851$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.74 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 1,872$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 1,325$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 1,049$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 700$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 487.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 362.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 310.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 6c | 306.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 232$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 200.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 160.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 157.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 150.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 134.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 122.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 119.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 115.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 100.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 96.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 94.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 93.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 50.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 46.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 29.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 27.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 18.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.