South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5997baf2735ab94997f6172ef304d90dbcd41991e32e2053171fb8ce7b7068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,117 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 3,109$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 22c | 1,249$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.25 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 29c | 700.52$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 33c | 594.09$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…21f2backed Under | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 7c | 489$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 71c | 475.35$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 27c | 324$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 19c | 142.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 39c | 128.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 120.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 112.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 100.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 46c | 96.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 87.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 74c | 79.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 73c | 78.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 57.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 62c | 39.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 74c | 37.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…fa78backed Under | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 76c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.