South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5cff705b6bfca6ca2fad03fe38d2c3288a78d9fdb5637a468339e021fba1695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 11,341$5,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,566.58 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 50c | 8,679$4,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,339.5 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 47c | 646.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.15 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 554.42$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.51 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 75c | 517.51$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Over | 66c | 303.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 67c | 297.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 271.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 24c | 211.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 51c | 195.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 47c | 180.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…0332backed Over | 56c | 167.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 160.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 51c | 146.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 66c | 134.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 27c | 125.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 25c | 124.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 26c | 93.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 30c | 79.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 45c | 75.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 76c | 71.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 47c | 71.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 58.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 55.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 50c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 50c | 47.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 53c | 46.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 43.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 25c | 43.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…fa78backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 70c | 24.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Over | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 50c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 63c | 22.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…f939backed Over | 74c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.