South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8617d4e85633009941f2324e227f53d1438fa8dc860e7632790104b209a9d158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Flamengoof CR Flamengo, Cruzeiro EC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,928 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ed3…983fbacked CR Flamengo | 35c | 678.77$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed CR Flamengo | 44c | 451$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Cruzeiro EC | 65c | 308.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed Cruzeiro EC | 65c | 287.77$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…cf21backed Cruzeiro EC | 66c | 256.46$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed CR Flamengo | 35c | 249$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cruzeiro EC | 65c | 249$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cruzeiro EC | 55c | 223.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed CR Flamengo | 34c | 212.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…0795backed Cruzeiro EC | 66c | 212.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CR Flamengo | 39c | 137.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Cruzeiro EC | 62c | 128.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…5a75backed Cruzeiro EC | 66c | 101.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…3e44backed Cruzeiro EC | 65c | 83.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…8626backed CR Flamengo | 40c | 75.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…489bbacked Cruzeiro EC | 66c | 56.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked CR Flamengo | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed CR Flamengo | 34c | 33.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cruzeiro EC | 39c | 33.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed CR Flamengo | 52c | 30.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cruzeiro EC | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Cruzeiro EC | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.