South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78cb626bee1b619ae98f99221b410d78104b8bea7eb7b3353ce7a2033153711c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,968 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 44c | 15,608$6,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,867.47 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 5,836$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.12 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…99a3backed Under | 51c | 3,921$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…63b1backed Over | 49c | 3,921$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 37c | 2,221$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.67 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 1,565$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.85 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 52c | 846.15$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.15 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 50c | 832.84$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.42 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 825.35$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.92 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 782.08$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 25c | 743.75$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 30c | 732.03$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 52c | 697.44$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 62c | 401.47$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 343$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Over | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 61c | 271.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Under | 52c | 259.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 49c | 258.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 256.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 45c | 222.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 41c | 205.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 186.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 178.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 131.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Over | 49c | 128.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 53c | 119.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 51c | 115.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 56c | 114.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 113.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…2347backed Over | 50c | 100.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 33c | 95.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 50c | 94.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 89.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 47c | 82.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 57c | 76.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 54c | 68.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 25c | 66.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Under | 35c | 63.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 44c | 52.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 71c | 48.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Under | 52c | 45.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 42c | 45.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…564dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c62ebacked Over | 50c | 34.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 57c | 32.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 36c | 28.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd415…7ae0backed Under | 51c | 27.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Over | 49c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac5…f91fbacked Under | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…fa78backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…ae93backed Over | 50c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 22.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 50c | 20.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.