Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Krakow Men: Kacper Knitter vs Yassine Smiej
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab659c1093ec14a09b972e21c0bf0c96b04c480ef0e0341ccbac656565917e03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kacper Knitterof Kacper Knitter, Yassine Smiej
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kacper Knitter | 62c | 1,569$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.84 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yassine Smiej | 38c | 1,223$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.33 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Kacper Knitter | 61c | 1,186$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.36 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yassine Smiej | 38c | 1,076$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.01 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Yassine Smiej | 39c | 599.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kacper Knitter | 60c | 219$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Kacper Knitter | 64c | 208.89$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kacper Knitter | 76c | 126.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Kacper Knitter | 68c | 118.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Kacper Knitter | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 299 | 55.2%165 W · 134 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Yassine Smiej | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Kacper Knitter | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yassine Smiej | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yassine Smiej | 31c | 85.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Kacper Knitter | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 316 | 57.3%181 W · 135 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yassine Smiej | 38c | 71.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yassine Smiej | 36c | 52.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yassine Smiej | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 710 | 45.4%322 W · 388 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yassine Smiej | 38c | 26.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yassine Smiej | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…cb91backed Kacper Knitter | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Kacper Knitter | 62c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M15 Krakow Men: Kacper Knitter vs Yassine Smiejthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Knitter vs SmiejKnitter won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.