Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab973e8f15ee461bf172238d5eee319fad0d043c651292a6699c4b7ff3a61f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kawasaki Frontaleof Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Kawasaki Frontale
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23c | 2,150$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 22c | 855.23$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.23 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kawasaki Frontale | 76c | 776.26$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Kawasaki Frontale | 77c | 398.64$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kawasaki Frontale | 78c | 255.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Kawasaki Frontale | 76c | 205$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Kawasaki Frontale | 76c | 205$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kawasaki Frontale | 78c | 92.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kawasaki Frontale | 78c | 70.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kawasaki Frontale | 78c | 36.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.