Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x266e876f639dbab65aeda4670074f40edfec08f71755bbced82d1fd04ce18d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 2,725$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.2 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,139$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.15 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under | 56c | 959.77$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 814.43$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.38 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Over | 44c | 683.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 56c | 602.52$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.11 | 395 | 49.9%197 W · 198 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 552.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 40c | 462$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 43c | 462$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 430.2$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 401.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 303.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Over | 48c | 293$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…fad4backed Under | 58c | 255.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 57c | 115.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 434 | 52.1%226 W · 208 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 71.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 47.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 217 | 54.4%118 W · 99 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…4381backed Under | 59c | 35.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 48c | 30.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 62c | 28.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 50c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 64c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 60c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.