Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbcff0ab44cacb3e098cce45d294fa2f0c28da7dcf9391cfc45098c422f7ba4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 4,345$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.45 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 2,631$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.53 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 1,030$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.39 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 73c | 549.99$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 305.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 35c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 41c | 102.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 41c | 90.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 33c | 79.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 41c | 65.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 36c | 62.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 35c | 62.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 74c | 59.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 40c | 45.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 43.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Under | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 35c | 31.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Over | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 59c | 30.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 68c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 45c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 42c | 26.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 61c | 22.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.