Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd296f4a46736f43e27d2c1434fc4d01e43e78a1383f0b9eaadb3c7d590de9ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kawasaki Frontaleof Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Kawasaki Frontale
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 46c | 3,671$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.05 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kawasaki Frontale | 61c | 3,139$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.12 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 40c | 2,503$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kawasaki Frontale | 55c | 1,815$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.32 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 37c | 1,312$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 48c | 648.47$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.12 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Kawasaki Frontale | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Kawasaki Frontale | 62c | 513.21$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.02 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Kawasaki Frontale | 61c | 436.76$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kawasaki Frontale | 76c | 390.16$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kawasaki Frontale | 60c | 343.17$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Kawasaki Frontale | 60c | 313$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 41c | 190.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Kawasaki Frontale | 63c | 124.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 40c | 100.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Kawasaki Frontale | 54c | 74.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 47c | 71.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Kawasaki Frontale | 53c | 71.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Kawasaki Frontale | 54c | 66.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kawasaki Frontale | 59c | 47.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 56c | 44.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Kawasaki Frontale | 44c | 44.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Kawasaki Frontale | 55c | 43.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Kawasaki Frontale | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Kawasaki Frontale | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Kawasaki Frontale | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.