MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb2b8fa9ac604847f381b431f3868893d16694857a735dfd9e68271e3b56205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 4,878$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,878.05 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 4,516$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.89 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 4,335$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 2,974$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 2,486$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.58 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 2,050$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 1,290$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,210$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.05 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,078$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 919.87$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.12 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 900$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 719.99$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 439.25$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 421.8$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 301.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 240.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 239$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 209$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 204$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 198$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 122$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 106$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 106$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 38.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…6d74backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 36.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 26.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 23.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.