MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb33cd7aef8902089c31d4704a18f95339e40f1d6a0c02b54508e3ab5d4b869c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 53c | 49,994$26,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,496.56 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 47c | 24,585$11,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,030.05 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 16,157$7,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,563.15 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 11,733$5,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,218.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Under | 53c | 11,060$5,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,861.84 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 47c | 10,649$5,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,643.97 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.99 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 2,718$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.66 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 2,042$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,395$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 54c | 1,113$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 1,012$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 53c | 884$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.52 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 46c | 881$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.74 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 766.83$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 660.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 528.63$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.46 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 480$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 449.21$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.57 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…1533backed Over | 47c | 329.15$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…98a0backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…3ca2backed Over | 47c | 193.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 54c | 190.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…2dd8backed Under | 54c | 159.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 47c | 154.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 47c | 124.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 122.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 46c | 121.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Under | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 47c | 117$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Over | 47c | 115.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Under | 54c | 95.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 92.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…abc9backed Under | 48c | 75.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Over | 47c | 56.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 63c | 52.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 51.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 42.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 63c | 41.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 38.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Under | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…25b2backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 47c | 29.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 76c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74e…05babacked Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 57c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 60c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Under | 54c | 19.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Under | 54c | 18.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.