MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4999fc5e69b58da6b70171c3def4aba8913efbe756134c7970cb3a7d8a7ba762
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 2,428$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.84 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 2,338$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,369$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 835$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 492.06$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 480.16$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 473.96$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 127.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 113.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 51.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 28.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.